What Tesla’s delivery numbers mean for the future of the company

Tesla reported its second straight year-over-year drop.

Transcript:

Caroline Woods: Q2 delivery numbers came in roughly in line with expectations, but quite a bit better than some of the whisper numbers. Still a decline, but what's your reaction?

Shay Boloor: So I think that the market's telling you that these numbers represent what the company Tesla was not what's it's becoming. It’s not an EV company anymore. So clearly these numbers was a slight miss, but it was better than feared because I think the lowest estimates are around 350,000. It came in at 384. The street wanted 389. So I think that it was better than feared. And I think that having an effect on what the company was is pretty minimal for what it's trying to become, because it's trying to become the operating system of physical AI through humanoids, through autonomy. If that vision comes to a reality, we're not going to worry about a couple 100,000 delivery numbers anymore. It's going to be something about the early disruptors of this multi-trillion dollar TAM. 

But the reality is it still is an EV company right now. And the delivery numbers, although maybe better than feared, still represented a 13.5% decline from the year ago period. There's still weakness in China. They're losing market share in Europe. They're dealing with brand and reputational damage following Elon Musk's participation in DOGE. How concerning is any of that to you?

I think the stock price is reflecting all those concerns, because how many stocks out there that are as disruptive as what Tesla is trying to accomplish, are stuck in the same stock price from four years ago? Not many. So I think that this massive, multi-year, rangebound trading reflects the digestion period of that narrative change from an EV company to a full on physical AI disruptor. And I think that nobody really knows the timeline on when that narrative change is going to be a reality. But Elon has a great track record, and I do believe that the Optimus autonomy is an inevitability. Timing is a little iffy. I was actually initially hoping that there would be some federal push. That's not the case with this junior high fight that we're seeing between Elon and Trump. But I think it was good enough numbers. And until they continue riding that momentum from a couple of weeks ago in Austin, they continue just delivering on, snowballing that momentum. I think they're going to be a really big disruptor in next couple of years.

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